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Coventry vs Aston Villa

Sat 12 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC · Round 15 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Coventry win: 28.7%

Draw: 28.7%

Aston Villa win: 42.6%

Predicted: Aston Villa

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.2%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 42.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 11.08

More corners: Aston Villa (47.7% home / 52.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Aston Villa

Yes

Probability Aston Villa wins or draws: 74.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Aston Villa Clearest lean of the available outcomes (43% vs next-best 29%). (43.0% model probability) Low

Total Goals Under 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Aston Villa win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (75.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.